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Dennis
Great Reader
9933 Posts |
 Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 05:02:50
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Needless to say, this question is inspired by the movie Minority Report. The pre-cogs are perfect, though the pre-crime system is not. If the Realms birth a Perfect Diviner or two, those whose prescience cannot be affected by any forms of magical tampering, then pre-crime might work well. Perhaps in Waterdeep and Cormyr. It would engender doubts among the populace, especially among the nobles who are usually the law-breakers themselves---doubts about the perfectness of the divination. But with the iron will of Cormyr’s sovereign and Waterdeep’s Lords, perhaps it could be done.
What do you think?
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Every beginning has an end. |
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Quale
Master of Realmslore
1757 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 08:20:41
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| In Halruaa, there's enough people who are familiar with divinations, so they would accept. |
Edited by - Quale on 03 Nov 2011 08:20:59 |
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Ayrik
Great Reader
Canada
7969 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 09:16:50
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Your premise seems too conditional, Dennis.
I doubt very much that a Perfect Diviner could exist, as evidenced by the fact that even the most powerful deities are apparently entirely unaware of certain significant events beforehand. Not to mention that other deities whose powers relate to illusion, deception, and secrecy are perhaps equally powerful; Cyric deluded himself, Mask's intrigues were subtle beyond his own manipulations and comprehension, Shar is empowered by secrets even she cannot know.
Although Perfect Diviners seem highly improbable, Nearly Perfect Diviners likely do exist. The balance of fate and choice has always been an important theme in Realms fiction; some diviners are Highly Reliable, but still fallable, and their prophecies can still be defied by the most strong and stubborn individuals.
I would also think a society governed by Perfect Prophecy would be stagnant and ultimately uninteresting. No need to change the world, or prevent it being changed, because everybody can just consult the Prophet and have all their questions about the future answered in advance. If I were a Perfect Diviner, I'd probably use my knowledge of possible futures to avoid revealing my talents to anyone, since I'd already know how that'd turn out. |
[/Ayrik] |
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Dennis
Great Reader
9933 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 09:32:53
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quote:
Originally posted by Quale
In Halruaa, there's enough people who are familiar with divinations, so they would accept.
So as in Thay, the old Thay, that is.
But as Ayrik said, perhaps it's impossible to have Perfect Diviners. There are also powerful abjurers led by a very competent Zulkir of Abjuration whose combined efforts could deflect any forms of divination.
It may work for some other realms, like the two I mentioned (Cormyr and Waterdeep). It can be used for a good plot, too. The government strives to maintain peace via the Pre-Crime system, but a cabal of wizards (Enchanters) infiltrate the Perfect Diviners' sactuary and implant in their minds some false divination. |
Every beginning has an end. |
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_Jarlaxle_
Senior Scribe
Germany
584 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 11:40:31
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| There is an oracle in the celestial realms which even forsaw Mystras Death, unfortunatly it didn't help to prevent it. |
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Kilvan
Senior Scribe
Canada
894 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 12:18:13
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Interesting question. I can see this system being adopted and accepted in cities like Luskan. Such diviners would be under the protection/captivity of the Lords and only crimes that wouldn't have any links to them would be retributed against. Still, it would provide some sort of security to the common and honest folks so it would be accepted by them, not that they'd have any choice in the matter.
I don't think cities like Waterdeep or Suzail could successfully implement this system, too much voices would be against it, and those voices would have more impact in such a lawful system. It could be secretely used though. |
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The Red Walker
Great Reader
USA
3563 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 12:53:26
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quote:
Originally posted by _Jarlaxle_
There is an oracle in the celestial realms which even forsaw Mystras Death, unfortunatly it didn't help to prevent it.
Sorry about that......I dropped my breakfast burrito....clean up the mess and find out all he'll broke loose when I was done  |
A little nonsense now and then, relished by the wisest men - Willy Wonka
"We need men who can dream of things that never were." -
John F. Kennedy, speech in Dublin, Ireland, June 28, 1963
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Artemas Entreri
Great Reader
USA
3131 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 12:54:25
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quote:
Originally posted by Dennis
quote:
Originally posted by Quale
In Halruaa, there's enough people who are familiar with divinations, so they would accept.
So as in Thay, the old Thay, that is.
But as Ayrik said, perhaps it's impossible to have Perfect Diviners. There are also powerful abjurers led by a very competent Zulkir of Abjuration whose combined efforts could deflect any forms of divination.
It may work for some other realms, like the two I mentioned (Cormyr and Waterdeep). It can be used for a good plot, too. The government strives to maintain peace via the Pre-Crime system, but a cabal of wizards (Enchanters) infiltrate the Perfect Diviners' sactuary and implant in their minds some false divination.
Doesn't 95% of Thay's citizens break the law?? |
Some people have a way with words, and other people...oh, uh, not have way. -Steve Martin
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Dennis
Great Reader
9933 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 14:02:00
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Well, they can limit the system: make it applicable only among the Red Wizards. The lesser populace are like slaves to them. A Red Wizard [or anybody else] divined to have slain a fellow Red Wizard goes to jail. But then again, abjurers and other factions of diviners can negate the magic of the [Near-] Perfect Diviners. |
Every beginning has an end. |
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Quale
Master of Realmslore
1757 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 16:22:31
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| They don't have the manpower to pull it off, and they thrive on backstabbing, not even Szass could force them introduce this. |
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Markustay
Realms Explorer extraordinaire
USA
15724 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 16:28:04
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How the magical universe works in regards to divination can actally best be summed up by a simple scientific principle.
Observer Effect: The act of observation changes the phenomenon being observed.
In other words, once the future is 'known', you have changed the outcome and invalidated that which you foresaw. |
"I have never in my life learned anything from any man who agreed with me" --- Dudley Field Malone
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Edited by - Markustay on 03 Nov 2011 16:29:36 |
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Artemas Entreri
Great Reader
USA
3131 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 16:52:23
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quote:
Originally posted by Markustay
How the magical universe works in regards to divination can actally best be summed up by a simple scientific principle.
Observer Effect: The act of observation changes the phenomenon being observed.
In other words, once the future is 'known', you have changed the outcome and invalidated that which you foresaw.
I knew you were going to write that, therefor I am not surprised. |
Some people have a way with words, and other people...oh, uh, not have way. -Steve Martin
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Dennis
Great Reader
9933 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 17:04:27
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quote:
Originally posted by Markustay
How the magical universe works in regards to divination can actally best be summed up by a simple scientific principle.
Observer Effect: The act of observation changes the phenomenon being observed.
In other words, once the future is 'known', you have changed the outcome and invalidated that which you foresaw.
Not all the time. Sometimes a future event occurs because someone glimpses it and does all in his power to either make it happen or thwart it; either way, his actions contribute to the actualization of that future. In other words, it may not happen if he hasn't seen and done anything about it. |
Every beginning has an end. |
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Wooly Rupert
Master of Mischief
USA
36779 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 18:14:53
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| In the movie, (spoiler)knowledge that he was supposed to commit the crime helped Tom Cruise not commit it(/spoiler). This shows that pre-crime is based on the most likely outcome of events, and is not immutable. Quoth Yoda: "Always in motion is the future." |
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Artemas Entreri
Great Reader
USA
3131 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 18:33:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Wooly Rupert
In the movie, (spoiler)knowledge that he was supposed to commit the crime helped Tom Cruise not commit it(/spoiler). This shows that pre-crime is based on the most likely outcome of events, and is not immutable. Quoth Yoda: "Always in motion is the future."
Excellent reference that was  |
Some people have a way with words, and other people...oh, uh, not have way. -Steve Martin
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Chosen of Asmodeus
Master of Realmslore
1221 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 19:25:52
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| No. Because pre-crime doesn't work. That was of the points of the movie. |
"Then I saw there was a way to Hell even from the gates of Heaven"
- John Bunyan, Pilgrim's Progress
Fatum Iustum Stultorum. Righteous is the destiny of fools.
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Markustay
Realms Explorer extraordinaire
USA
15724 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 20:45:26
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There was another movie made like that years ago - can't recall the specifics, but the premise was the same. I also read a novel back in 7th grade called Seeds of Change which used that as a sub-plot (or rather, a device to set the real plot in-motion).
And in every case, it was found to be faulty.
A similar premise was used in the snore-fest film Gattaca - only the 'imperfect' (non-engineered) people were considered suspect, because (supposedly), the genetically engineered folk were 'too perfect' to commit crimes. In the end, that system too was found to be wanting.
The fact that we have something similar - profiling - scares the beejeezus out of me. I was once pulled over for going 3 miles over the speed limit, and there were a bunch of cars both ahead and behind me that were doing the same exact speed. The officer picked me out of the center of the pack, and when I later asked him why, he said "pulling over guys like you usually lead to bigger things". I was driving a beat-up old work-truck. I will never forget that - because I was driving after 11PM he just assumed I was going to buy drugs somewhere (I was on my way to some night work). The whole subject makes me queasy - I would hate to see pre-crime used both RW and in a fantasy story.
quote:
Originally posted by Dennis
quote:
Originally posted by Markustay
How the magical universe works in regards to divination can actally best be summed up by a simple scientific principle.
Observer Effect: The act of observation changes the phenomenon being observed.
In other words, once the future is 'known', you have changed the outcome and invalidated that which you foresaw.
Not all the time. Sometimes a future event occurs because someone glimpses it and does all in his power to either make it happen or thwart it; either way, his actions contribute to the actualization of that future. In other words, it may not happen if he hasn't seen and done anything about it.
True, but that doesn't invalidate my point.
In that case, the fact that you observed the event set-off the event. The action of observing affected the outcome. |
"I have never in my life learned anything from any man who agreed with me" --- Dudley Field Malone
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Edited by - Markustay on 04 Nov 2011 03:26:36 |
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Nilus Reynard
Learned Scribe
Canada
137 Posts |
Posted - 03 Nov 2011 : 22:09:31
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| It may work, but I think that something like that would take some of the fun out of the Realms. Criminals (masterful ones even more so), make novels interesting to read. If there was someone around to catch people like Elaith Craulnober before he did something wrong/illegal, it would take alot of the suspense out of the novel & make the villain bland. |
Nilus Reynard
Doom Master of Beshaba, Hand of Despair.
P24 Hm CN
(2nd Edition AD&D) |
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The Sage
Procrastinator Most High
Australia
31701 Posts |
Posted - 04 Nov 2011 : 01:18:35
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quote:
Originally posted by Wooly Rupert
In the movie, (spoiler)knowledge that he was supposed to commit the crime helped Tom Cruise not commit it(/spoiler). This shows that pre-crime is based on the most likely outcome of events, and is not immutable. Quoth Yoda: "Always in motion is the future."
Indeed. And it's largely the philosophy I use for Zalathorm's ability to predict future events. He can see a miasma of possible futures, while not being able to wholly focus on what will be -- just what can and/or could be. The present itself, defines what is. |
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Dennis
Great Reader
9933 Posts |
Posted - 04 Nov 2011 : 03:19:06
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quote:
Originally posted by Nilus Reynard
It may work, but I think that something like that would take some of the fun out of the Realms. Criminals (masterful ones even more so), make novels interesting to read. If there was someone around to catch people like Elaith Craulnober before he did something wrong/illegal, it would take alot of the suspense out of the novel & make the villain bland.
Not when the criminals themselves attempt to tamper the system both from the inside and the outside. |
Every beginning has an end. |
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Markustay
Realms Explorer extraordinaire
USA
15724 Posts |
Posted - 04 Nov 2011 : 03:30:57
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And that line of thought now makes me wonder if it is possible, by magical means, to divert a divination attempt to see something; either a false vision, or the vision of something else altogether.
I am thinking in-terms of Craulnober - I can see him being the type to set-up red-herrngs when he was plotting something big, just to confuse any type scrying. That would be his style. |
"I have never in my life learned anything from any man who agreed with me" --- Dudley Field Malone
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Dennis
Great Reader
9933 Posts |
Posted - 04 Nov 2011 : 05:37:52
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Those who wish to obfuscate the work of a circle of [near perfect] diviners can implant false divination in one or two of them, which is relatively easier than tampering with the minds of the whole lot of them. When they realize they have different visions, they would begin to doubt the veracity of their magic. |
Every beginning has an end. |
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Ayrik
Great Reader
Canada
7969 Posts |
Posted - 04 Nov 2011 : 06:05:27
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| But in the end it seems that a (Nearly) Perfect Diviner must be truly omniscient. If not directly then through access to truly omniscient agencies, such as (supposedly) the gods. We all know the gods are categorically limited in their knowledge and capabilities, and ability to perceive or change their futures, so I doubt (Nearly) Perfect Diviners possessing omniscience could exist. Just imagine how any god or goddess of the Realms, pick any one you like, would react to the presence of a truly omniscient Perfect Diviner who could, among other things, learn the secrets of the gods. Consistently Accurate Diviners seem far more likely, if for no other reason than divine Darwinism would eventually weed out all those who were overly successful in their craft. |
[/Ayrik] |
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Abenabin Gimblescrew
Seeker
USA
75 Posts |
Posted - 04 Nov 2011 : 07:12:24
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quote:
Originally posted by Markustay
There was another movie made like that years ago - can't recall the specifics, but the premise was the same. I also read a novel back in 7th grade called Seeds of Change which used that as a sub-plot (or rather, a device to set the real plot in-motion).
And in every case, it was found to be faulty.
A similar premise was used in the snore-fest film Gattaca - only the 'imperfect' (non-engineered) people were considered suspect, because (supposedly), the genetically engineered folk were 'too perfect' to commit crimes. In the end, that system too was found to be wanting.
The fact that we have something similar - profiling - scares the beejeezus out of me. I was once pulled over for going 3 miles over the speed limit, and there were a bunch of cars both ahead and behind me that were doing the same exact speed. The officer picked me out of the center of the pack, and when I later asked him why, he said "pulling over guys like you usually lead to bigger things". I was driving a beat-up old work-truck. I will never forget that - because I was driving after 11PM he just assumed I was going to buy drugs somewhere (I was on my way to some night work). The whole subject makes me queasy - I would hate to see pre-crime used both RW and in a fantasy story.
I have mix feelings upon the science of profiling or predicting an outcome before the actual event transpires. It can be stipulated at any point in time that any person could do the most grievous of crimes against humanity or has the seeds to be the most monstrous of people.
It takes away choice out of the hand of the individual. Plus Time is mutable. There are infinite amounts of responses/reactions to every minute action that no one person can foresee the end result.
I find any group of people that singles out one person because they seem strange and then takes steps to alienate them further is showing how fearful of that person they are. This by no means say that if you see someone that looks mean, has a gun strapped to their hip, and is skulking about suspiciously you shouldn't make a snap judgment that this person may not be up to no good, but I can point out numerous times in history how a person(s), a cultural group, etc. was singled out just for the pure fact they were different or "strange" then persecuted/judged without any due process or any evidence of doing anything criminal or sinister but simply to exist.
To get more back on point though to Dennis's thread, I don't think you could ever have a "Perfect" Diviner/Oracle/Prophet(ess). That I agree with Ayrik and others that have said so far.
As for a society in the Realms that would use a similar system of diviners to police its people - Imaskari perhaps? The Zhents for sure if they had the resources to pull it off.
As much as I could see Cormyr using diviners I don't seem them using a Minority like system to administer justice. They are about justice, but also altruism, freedom, and goodwill.
Waterdeep's Lords aren't going to do that for the pure fact they wouldn't want their own plans thwarted by such an organization. Plus, while they are wealthy, their resources aren't that numerous.
As for Thay - I'm going to say no dice there. Thay is concerned more with power than knowing the future. This isn't to say they wouldn't use divination to protect themselves, but as noted it would give their rivals too much power or limit their ability to deal out their own "justice" without respite from the other zulkirs.
In all honesty, I always have powerful diviners be extremely rare and usually hermits, or nearly so, and want to be left alone. Not saying they dislike people or anything, but the burden of their power would become more of a curse than a boon.
I think the movie I'm thinking of here is Paycheck where it is pointed out in the movie that everyone flocks to the guy that has the machine that can see the future. It predicts a plague, people huddle away in fear. Then it predicts a war and all the nations of the world prepare to respond to it. Finally, it ends with the end of the world as the only possible ending due to the fact people gave up their right to choose or more aptly their ability to hope for a better future.
Anyways, apologies for the lengthy post, but it was intriguing so far and wanted to be as clear as I could. |
Invention is the key to staying ahead of the competition. |
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Dennis
Great Reader
9933 Posts |
Posted - 04 Nov 2011 : 08:52:17
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Would Pre-Crime work in [Old] Netheril? Each enclave could have one representative diviner to eschew partiality.
While a perfect diviner may not exist, it is possible that the effort of a cohesive circle of diviners can bring about a perfect divination. The work of the many is usually greater and more effective than the work of one. Or conversely, what one man cannot do, a dozen men can. |
Every beginning has an end. |
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Markustay
Realms Explorer extraordinaire
USA
15724 Posts |
Posted - 04 Nov 2011 : 14:10:33
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I'd also note that most 'uber-diviners'(prophets, seers, oracles, etc) are considered at least slightly insane, and go into a trance-like state, and speak in such a way as to obfuscate the a clear picture of events. The further off into the future the event is, the fuzzier the vision, and people don't usually know when or where an event will occur until after the vision comes true (and usually with some ironic twist).
In other words, the more talented the diviner, the more some cosmic power of the universe works to make their predictions hard to understand and/or believe. |
"I have never in my life learned anything from any man who agreed with me" --- Dudley Field Malone
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Wooly Rupert
Master of Mischief
USA
36779 Posts |
Posted - 04 Nov 2011 : 17:08:28
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| Another issue with the pre-crime concept, which I think some deities, in particular, would have an issue with: pre-crime treats the would-be criminal the same as an actual criminal. People were prosecuted for crimes that they likely would have committed in the same way they would have been had they been committed. With pre-crime, you could be prosecuted and incarcerated for murder, with your victim having never been harmed. There's an ugly slippery slope with that concept, and it's something I can see any number of freedom-loving types (like CG folk) being fiercely opposed to. |
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Candlekeep - The Library of Forgotten Realms Lore
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Nilus Reynard
Learned Scribe
Canada
137 Posts |
Posted - 04 Nov 2011 : 20:53:16
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Having never seen Minority Report, I am just going with what I was able to find online.
Is it possible that one or more of the diviners could become corrupt and use their "visions" to enforce their own agendas?
Just a thought. |
Nilus Reynard
Doom Master of Beshaba, Hand of Despair.
P24 Hm CN
(2nd Edition AD&D) |
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Artemas Entreri
Great Reader
USA
3131 Posts |
Posted - 04 Nov 2011 : 21:11:34
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| Just because pre-crime could be done, does not mean it should be done. |
Some people have a way with words, and other people...oh, uh, not have way. -Steve Martin
Amazon "KindleUnlimited" Free Trial: http://amzn.to/2AJ4yD2
Try Audible and Get 2 Free Audio Books! https://amzn.to/2IgBede |
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Dennis
Great Reader
9933 Posts |
Posted - 06 Nov 2011 : 18:11:59
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quote:
Originally posted by Nilus Reynard
Is it possible that one or more of the diviners could become corrupt and use their "visions" to enforce their own agendas?
Yes, if they are more like Yaphyll and less like Zalathorm. |
Every beginning has an end. |
Edited by - Dennis on 06 Nov 2011 18:15:47 |
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The Sage
Procrastinator Most High
Australia
31701 Posts |
Posted - 07 Nov 2011 : 02:41:23
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quote:
Originally posted by Dennis
quote:
Originally posted by Nilus Reynard
Is it possible that one or more of the diviners could become corrupt and use their "visions" to enforce their own agendas?
Yes, if they are more like Yaphyll and less like Zalathorm.
Zalathorm surrounded himself with fellow diviners, as I recall. Each of which could have, potentially, taken it upon themselves to manipulate possible future events for personal gain. |
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Candlekeep - The Library of Forgotten Realms Lore
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"So Saith Ed" -- the collected Candlekeep replies of Ed Greenwood
Zhoth'ilam Folio -- The Electronic Misadventures of a Rambling Sage |
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Would Pre-Crime Work in the Realms?
