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Wooly Rupert
Master of Mischief
Moderator

USA
30202 Posts

Posted - 09 Sep 2017 :  04:37:06  Show Profile Send Wooly Rupert a Private Message  Reply with Quote
It's looking a lot more favorable for this part of the state, now -- Irma is (once again!) projected to go way west.

A lot of places are still shut down and boarded up, but I'm far less concerned than I was yesterday afternoon.

This storm has been odd -- the predictions for hurricanes are normally pretty consistent, but this one has had some wildly different projected tracks.

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Wooly Rupert
Master of Mischief
Moderator

USA
30202 Posts

Posted - 10 Sep 2017 :  04:13:43  Show Profile Send Wooly Rupert a Private Message  Reply with Quote
The latest weather prediction has us catching 75 mph gusts, tomorrow, with sustained winds at 62 mph.

I've been outside during 85 mph winds. Yes, that was stupid of me, but I bring it up to show that while those are powerful winds, they're not as scary as they could be.

Heck, if it wasn't for wanting to set a good example for my 6 year old, I'd be more than a little tempted to wander outside once or twice tomorrow.

My main concern for tomorrow is power. If we lose power, we lose AC. And that's uncomfortable. But we didn't lose power during Matthew, so I'm hopeful. I know for past storms, power crews from other parts of the country have been sent down to assist, arriving before the storm did -- and I did hear the other day that they're doing that again, with this storm.

It's been a long and worrisome week... At one point, we were planning on fleeing to St. Petersburg -- but that's now directly in the path of the storm. And my wife really had her heart set on going to stay with her best friend in Orlando, until I showed her that the track at that time had the storm going over Orlando.

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Kentinal
Great Reader

4291 Posts

Posted - 10 Sep 2017 :  05:14:34  Show Profile Send Kentinal a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Predicting weather of all kinds is an art more then a science. Not enough understanding to fully understand all the dynamics of such stroms. That is reason that 14 centers are part of Hurricane path models. At least it does appear to sound better for you.

One question though. Why do you not have a generator in case the grid goes down?

"Small beings can have small wisdom," the dragon said. "And small wise beings are better than small fools. Listen: Wisdom is caring for afterwards."
"Caring for afterwards ...? Ker repeated this without understanding.
"After action, afterwards," the dragon said. "Choose the afterwards first, then the action. Fools choose action first."
"Judgement" copyright 2003 by Elizabeth Moon
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Wooly Rupert
Master of Mischief
Moderator

USA
30202 Posts

Posted - 10 Sep 2017 :  05:39:50  Show Profile Send Wooly Rupert a Private Message  Reply with Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Kentinal

Predicting weather of all kinds is an art more then a science. Not enough understanding to fully understand all the dynamics of such stroms. That is reason that 14 centers are part of Hurricane path models. At least it does appear to sound better for you.

One question though. Why do you not have a generator in case the grid goes down?



Because they're not free, and because this kind of thing is far from being a frequent occurrence. I've updated this thread for 7 storms, since 2004. Two of those were in the same year (practically the same month!), three were like snow days, and for one of them, I only left my home to hang out with friends a couple miles away. FPL is pretty good about restoring power quickly, and though 7 or 8 storms may sound like a lot, the combination of ocean currents and barrier islands means we usually don't get much more than heavy summer rains, if that.

Oh, and it takes a large generator to run the AC.

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Edited by - Wooly Rupert on 10 Sep 2017 15:29:03
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Wooly Rupert
Master of Mischief
Moderator

USA
30202 Posts

Posted - 11 Sep 2017 :  15:10:44  Show Profile Send Wooly Rupert a Private Message  Reply with Quote
So... Part of our back fence blew down, and there's a hell of a lot of yard debris, but we're otherwise fine.

The power flickered a lot last night. At about 12:30, whilst I was watching a movie I'd luckily downloaded, the power went out entirely for a couple minutes.

And then came back on.

And then went back out a couple minutes later.

And then came back on a couple minutes after that.

It did that routine until about 1:15, when it died entirely. This made for an uncomfortable night's sleep for me, though my son didn't seem to notice.

I woke up about 7:30, and started cleaning up the yard. About two hours later, as I was walking around the block, my wife called to say we had power again.

So now the only question is when I go back to work... I'm paid, either way, but I do like the overtime on the paycheck.

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Compaste
Acolyte

0 Posts

Posted - 19 Sep 2017 :  04:54:33  Show Profile Send Compaste a Private Message  Reply with Quote
It was so sad to hear different stories of the victims of hurricane. Prayers for each family.
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Wooly Rupert
Master of Mischief
Moderator

USA
30202 Posts

Posted - 19 Sep 2017 :  05:11:40  Show Profile Send Wooly Rupert a Private Message  Reply with Quote
What really sucks is a lot of people that got hammered by Irma, in the Caribbean, are now getting (or will soon be) hammered by Maria.

Current projects for Maria are for it to turn north soon; it will be better for damn near everybody if it follows that track.

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Wooly Rupert
Master of Mischief
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USA
30202 Posts

Posted - 19 Sep 2017 :  05:13:21  Show Profile Send Wooly Rupert a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Oh, and two other notes about my Irma: a friend came over and helped (by which I mean he did most of the work) me repair my fence the other day, so that's all good. And I saw an official report that the highest reported wind in the county was 94 mph. That's a lot of wind, but it could have been a lot worse, obviously.

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sleyvas
Great Reader

USA
5801 Posts

Posted - 19 Sep 2017 :  13:26:02  Show Profile Send sleyvas a Private Message  Reply with Quote
Glad you made it out Wooly. How bad and what kind of fence did it mess up out of curiosity? The one thing I had never thought about with Katrina was my chain link fence, and I was surprised that it had basically tore up a lot of the strapping of the the fence to the poles at the top and that ended up allowing the fence caps to come up, etc... such that the fence I had just installed a couple months prior looked all crooked after and has never quite been right since. I had figured being not solid it would have been fairly stable with maybe just some shaking. It helps of course that I'm about an hour in from the coast too, so the storm was a lot less powerful when it got to me (though still bad enough to rip off the metal roofs of my neighbor's house and the trailer across the street... but I consider those kind of like a big semi-solid sail or wing once the air gets under them).

Alavairthae, may your skill prevail

Phillip aka Sleyvas
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Wooly Rupert
Master of Mischief
Moderator

USA
30202 Posts

Posted - 19 Sep 2017 :  15:10:20  Show Profile Send Wooly Rupert a Private Message  Reply with Quote
It's a 6 foot wooden privacy fence. One of the 4x4 uprights had rotten thru, a few inches below ground, and that post blew over and took a section of fence with it.

The neighbor's yard on that side is wide open, so the wind was able to hit that fence full force. The fence on the other side of the yard wasn't even leaning.

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